Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January
In that case, rates might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will require additional 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest because mid-2022
India might tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says
(Adds analyst comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil benchmark rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, but prices are anticipated to stay elevated due to scheduled expansion of the nation's biodiesel mandate, industry experts stated.
The palm oil criteria cost in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, lifted by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to decrease fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric loads compared with an estimated drop of just over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study company Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million ton drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, provide from elsewhere and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip a little next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million lots in 2024.
"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke stated.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The rate rise in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be needed for B40 application, deteriorating export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest given that mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we have to beware," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer items company Godrej International.
He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
think about postponing
B40 execution on concern about its impact on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import duty hike
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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